CLaY123456
0xa7572021ecc1fab253fd8023d7b99f464cfbf01f
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $243.7k
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $100.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$248.02at 0.032Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
- +$154.04at 0.385Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
- +$130.69at 0.399Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?
- +$126.60at 0.810US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
- +$110.52at 0.913US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-23 15:53 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.075 | $7.50 |
| 05-16 13:00 | Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? | SELL | 0.071 | $5.65 |
| 05-10 12:39 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $52.00 |
| 05-10 12:38 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $19.84 |
| 05-05 13:15 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3532225519 | $5.95 |
| 05-05 13:14 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.17 | $188.53 |
| 05-05 12:21 | Epstein client list released by June 30? | SELL | 0.0201169326 | $30.71 |
| 05-03 17:21 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3240798376 | $23.95 |
| 05-03 17:20 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.3 | $60.00 |
| 04-30 23:29 | Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? | SELL | 0.66038404 | $330.19 |
| 04-29 15:26 | Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? | BUY | 0.399 | $199.50 |
| 04-29 14:42 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | SELL | 0.25 | $330.40 |
| 04-28 18:21 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $76.00 |
| 04-28 18:14 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | SELL | 0.2400225167 | $74.62 |
| 04-27 14:23 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2860460079 | $38.30 |