Test669
0xa1890dd567befe26bf75b5d0def459e3a3e0a2d5
- Realised P&L
- $10.6k
- Volume
- $1.62M
- Markets traded
- 219
- Open portfolio
- $44.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded219
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.5kat 0.500Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$4.7kat 0.793US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$2.2kat 0.870Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
- +$2.1kat 0.328Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
- +$2.1kat 0.934MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 09:36 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m? | BUY | 0.8 | $530.72 |
| 08-01 07:13 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? | BUY | 0.57 | $137.94 |
| 08-01 07:10 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? | BUY | 0.57 | $57.00 |
| 08-01 07:10 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? | BUY | 0.5786666667 | $86.80 |
| 08-01 07:09 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? | BUY | 0.5731578947 | $54.45 |
| 08-01 06:58 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1895742857 | $132.70 |
| 08-01 06:27 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.328 | $23.62 |
| 08-01 06:24 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $39.00 |
| 08-01 06:22 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.259 | $64.75 |
| 08-01 06:16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6 | $6.00 |
| 07-31 19:46 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.5306000021 | $1.5k |
| 07-31 19:36 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $880.00 |
| 07-31 19:31 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $870.00 |
| 07-31 18:10 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.9 | $803.78 |
| 07-31 14:29 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m? | BUY | 0.65 | $10.10 |