covidsurvivor
0xa11893f2dbb23fbafb0554ec0aeab618adef2455
- Realised P&L
- $11.75
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $216.54
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration24.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.935 | $66.57 | −$0.36 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027? · No | 0.967 | 0.969 | $50.39 | +$0.10 |
| New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? · No | 0.960 | 0.962 | $50.02 | +$0.10 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NC-12 House seat? · No | 0.940 | 0.935 | $49.55 | −$0.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.04at 0.940Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?
- +$2.40at 0.900Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?
- +$1.83at 0.956Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.72at 0.964Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- +$0.79at 0.950NATO dissolves before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 12:36 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? | BUY | 0.9 | $21.63 |
| 04-10 12:33 | Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? | SELL | 0.955922669 | $21.63 |
| 04-10 12:30 | Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? | BUY | 0.9569999994 | $21.66 |