12ffffrr
0xa0f5cf097e65875015414f03dda205c9e3fd0456
- Realised P&L
- $1.0k
- Volume
- $45.0k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $680.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? · Yes | 0.351 | 0.460 | $345.78 | +$81.79 |
| Will Clavicular visit Japan in 2026? · No | 0.767 | 0.795 | $257.87 | +$8.97 |
| Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? · No | 0.917 | 0.953 | $34.61 | +$1.29 |
| Will Francesca Hong win Dane County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? · No | 0.042 | 0.027 | $29.66 | −$17.03 |
| Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%? · Yes | 0.502 | 0.459 | $9.40 | −$0.89 |
| Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.520 | 0.545 | $2.73 | +$0.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$126.11at 0.220Will Clavicular visit Japan in 2026?
- +$125.18at 0.343Will Chris Bryant be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- +$94.00at 0.262Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$89.95at 0.173Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?
- +$60.68at 0.233Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 07:13 | Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? | SELL | 0.365 | $21.54 |
| 08-09 06:51 | Will Francesca Hong win Dane County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? | SELL | 0.019 | $1.52 |
| 08-09 06:51 | Will Clavicular visit Japan in 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $15.40 |
| 08-09 06:34 | Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? | SELL | 0.502 | $2.51 |
| 08-09 06:34 | Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1108504848 | $6.52 |
| 08-09 06:31 | Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $6.60 |
| 08-09 06:31 | Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $7.50 |
| 08-09 06:29 | Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? | SELL | 0.433 | $15.59 |
| 08-09 06:28 | Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? | SELL | 0.433 | $15.59 |
| 08-09 06:28 | Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? | SELL | 0.433 | $15.59 |
| 08-09 06:28 | Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? | SELL | 0.433 | $15.59 |
| 08-09 06:27 | Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? | SELL | 0.472 | $23.60 |
| 08-09 06:24 | Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31? | BUY | 0.3443745285 | $280.30 |
| 08-09 04:10 | Will Francesca Hong win Dane County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? | SELL | 0.019 | $1.52 |
| 08-09 04:09 | Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $16.16 |