clarel
0xa0e54ddba58077282e7be3142871ff51ee51e24d
- Realised P&L
- $253.89
- Volume
- $40.5k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $989.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.980 | 0.991 | $412.05 | +$4.37 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.987 | 0.987 | $350.83 | −$0.18 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 August 3-9? · No | 0.992 | 0.997 | $127.55 | +$0.58 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 August 3-9? · No | 0.985 | 0.991 | $99.10 | +$0.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$41.50at 0.900Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$34.95at 0.750Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
- +$31.11at 0.880Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
- +$21.86at 0.949Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?
- +$19.42at 0.948Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 12:41 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.987 | $351.01 |
| 08-03 12:39 | Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.985 | $98.50 |
| 08-03 12:39 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.992 | $126.98 |
| 08-02 09:37 | Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.995672201 | $574.50 |
| 07-23 07:08 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.993 | $570.78 |
| 07-15 08:42 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.98 | $407.68 |
| 07-05 11:34 | Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? | BUY | 0.988 | $970.09 |
| 06-26 02:38 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | BUY | 0.996 | $427.15 |
| 06-16 12:52 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.996 | $467.12 |
| 06-05 05:42 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9896428571 | $27.71 |
| 06-05 05:41 | Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $72.27 |
| 06-05 05:41 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $37.62 |
| 06-05 05:41 | Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $27.72 |
| 05-21 04:18 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? | BUY | 0.985 | $658.57 |
| 05-18 14:25 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? | BUY | 0.996 | $657.36 |