ryebreadcrumbs
0x94cae7e1cb62b7c70914f367c97ba115d4198479
- Realised P&L
- $-7.29
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $444.37
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.942 | $209.01 | +$22.53 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · No | 0.520 | 0.555 | $171.64 | +$10.82 |
| Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.917 | 0.947 | $30.98 | +$0.97 |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.209 | 0.170 | $26.42 | −$6.02 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.845 | $6.31 | +$1.31 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-0.40at 0.045Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?
- +$-2.21at 0.542Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- +$-16.46at 0.655Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-03 23:03 | Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $186.48 |
| 05-02 23:16 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2087068364 | $32.44 |
| 05-02 23:01 | Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9172004141 | $30.01 |
| 05-01 21:30 | Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | BUY | 0.6699998727 | $5.00 |
| 05-01 11:25 | Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary? | SELL | 0.5750374181 | $122.94 |
| 05-01 10:55 | Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary? | SELL | 0.67 | $26.80 |
| 05-01 10:53 | Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | SELL | 0.469 | $14.13 |
| 05-01 10:44 | Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary? | BUY | 0.6548779172 | $166.21 |
| 05-01 04:56 | Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | BUY | 0.56 | $2.80 |
| 05-01 04:00 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.5199999997 | $160.82 |
| 05-01 02:55 | Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | BUY | 0.5389999965 | $13.54 |
| 04-30 22:21 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.1737916309 | $85.06 |
| 04-30 22:20 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2102278719 | $102.89 |
| 04-30 22:17 | Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? | SELL | 0.044 | $13.89 |
| 04-30 22:12 | Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? | BUY | 0.0452590971 | $14.29 |