0x93a93d84d44270b5b86dad5c28eff367a7d70b88
- Realised P&L
- $15.6k
- Volume
- $2.49M
- Markets traded
- 460
- Open portfolio
- $12.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded460
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.045 | $11.17 | +$4.22 |
| Will Andy Levin win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.001 | $0.50 | −$49.71 |
| Will Sarah Anthony win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.001 | $0.50 | −$49.71 |
| Will Kristen McDonald Rivet win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.001 | $0.50 | −$49.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.4kat 0.590US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$4.6kat 0.990Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$4.4kat 0.482US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
- +$3.7kat 0.495US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
- +$3.0kat 0.268Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 13:38 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.028 | $6.95 |
| 08-02 13:38 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.59 | $6.71 |
| 07-31 10:50 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $7.17 |
| 07-30 22:48 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.033 | $0.04 |
| 07-30 22:44 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.127 | $744.39 |
| 07-30 22:44 | Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | BUY | 0.79 | $625.51 |
| 07-30 22:30 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.5k |
| 07-30 22:11 | Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.931 | $279.31 |
| 07-30 22:11 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $1.3k |
| 07-30 22:10 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $163.64 |
| 07-30 21:57 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $455.90 |
| 07-30 21:55 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.48 | $46.07 |
| 07-30 21:54 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.47 | $17.07 |
| 07-30 21:54 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.4584456468 | $37.28 |
| 07-30 21:49 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30? | SELL | 0.003049535 | $7.07 |