Magelan97
0x904c33389b909c0a8763b9393f45ec50ae622634
- Realised P&L
- $-228.94
- Volume
- $54.9k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $36.65
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)29.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? · No | 0.209 | 0.250 | $11.93 | +$1.93 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.036 | $6.64 | −$13.36 |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? · Yes | 0.134 | 0.047 | $5.26 | −$9.74 |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.075 | $3.75 | −$2.25 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.035 | $3.58 | −$6.42 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.265 | $2.14 | −$2.86 |
| Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.026 | $1.70 | −$3.30 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.023 | $1.64 | −$3.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$113.74at 0.180UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
- +$113.47at 0.251Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
- +$79.95at 0.111Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
- +$11.67at 0.300Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?
- +$5.20at 0.490Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 03:11 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.2899999846 | $10.00 |
| 07-07 08:25 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.3399999967 | $50.00 |
| 06-12 21:03 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0048095236 | $10.00 |
| 06-11 22:04 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | BUY | 0.4799999981 | $50.00 |
| 06-08 16:40 | Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | BUY | 0.1339999929 | $15.00 |
| 06-08 16:34 | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $151.47 |
| 06-01 13:17 | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY | 0.250611021 | $38.00 |
| 05-23 20:53 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY | 0.3199433975 | $20.00 |
| 05-22 22:23 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.04 | $10.00 |
| 05-22 22:01 | Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.013 | $6.00 |
| 05-22 21:55 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0059999994 | $10.00 |
| 05-22 17:27 | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.001 | $35.00 |
| 05-21 12:16 | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.002 | $11.00 |
| 05-17 18:51 | Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? | BUY | 0.209999974 | $5.00 |
| 05-17 18:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? | BUY | 0.5399999997 | $35.00 |