stierdgen
0x8a658e5863d109b9b1c34a22440b6fd0d7f3a3de
- Realised P&L
- $-60.90
- Volume
- $14.7k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $830.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$498.70at 0.283U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
- +$183.00at 0.390Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?
- +$146.00at 0.670Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
- +$124.00at 0.690San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves
- +$83.46at 0.797Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 04:29 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m? | BUY | 0.7 | $42.30 |
| 08-03 04:29 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m? | BUY | 0.6119217959 | $33.05 |
| 08-03 04:29 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m? | BUY | 0.48 | $19.03 |
| 08-03 04:12 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.6 | $28.07 |
| 08-03 04:12 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | SELL | 0.14 | $70.00 |
| 08-02 23:38 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $53.84 |
| 08-02 18:47 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 2? | BUY | 0.77 | $41.50 |
| 08-02 18:43 | Will Hartzell Gray be the MO-04 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.709999993 | $100.00 |
| 08-02 18:43 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | BUY | 0.7 | $100.00 |
| 08-02 18:43 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | BUY | 0.6799999935 | $100.00 |
| 08-02 18:43 | Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.7 | $100.00 |
| 08-02 18:33 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | SELL | 0.995 | $446.74 |
| 08-02 04:00 | Will Adam Murphy be the VA-09 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.72 | $67.83 |
| 08-02 03:59 | Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.73 | $116.80 |
| 08-02 03:51 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.14 | $140.00 |