PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

stierdgen

0x8a658e5863d109b9b1c34a22440b6fd0d7f3a3de

Realised P&L
$-60.90
Volume
$14.7k
Markets traded
27
Open portfolio
$830.40

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded27
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration40.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample12 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration14.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? · Yes0.6800.825$121.32+$21.32
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? · Yes0.7000.810$115.71+$15.71
Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee? · Yes0.7300.720$115.20$1.60
Will Hartzell Gray be the MO-04 Democratic nominee? · Yes0.7100.770$108.45+$8.45
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m? · Yes0.6130.616$94.84+$0.46
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? · Yes0.7000.645$92.14$7.86
Will Adam Murphy be the VA-09 Democratic nominee? · No0.7200.870$81.96+$14.13
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? · Yes0.1400.145$72.50+$2.50
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes0.5580.590$28.74+$1.54
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET · Down0.6100.000$0.00$6.10
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers · New York Yankees0.5220.000$0.00$208.80
Will England win on 2026-06-23? · Yes0.8400.000$0.00$168.00
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos · Gustavo Almeida0.6600.000$0.00$132.00
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? · No0.5900.000$0.00$295.00
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays · Tampa Bay Rays0.5200.000$0.00$260.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-03 04:29Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m?BUY0.7$42.30
08-03 04:29Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m?BUY0.6119217959$33.05
08-03 04:29Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m?BUY0.48$19.03
08-03 04:12US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?SELL0.6$28.07
08-03 04:12Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?SELL0.14$70.00
08-02 23:38Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 2?SELL0.999$53.84
08-02 18:47Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 2?BUY0.77$41.50
08-02 18:43Will Hartzell Gray be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?BUY0.709999993$100.00
08-02 18:43Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?BUY0.7$100.00
08-02 18:43Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?BUY0.6799999935$100.00
08-02 18:43Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?BUY0.7$100.00
08-02 18:33Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?SELL0.995$446.74
08-02 04:00Will Adam Murphy be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?BUY0.72$67.83
08-02 03:59Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?BUY0.73$116.80
08-02 03:51Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?BUY0.14$140.00