0x89420ddcef49b50c3538047ee0c50e76e21a1812
- Realised P&L
- $-3.77
- Volume
- $82.98
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $15.24
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.999 | $3.11 | +$1.02 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.999 | $2.78 | +$0.69 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.290 | $2.16 | +$0.07 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.425 | $2.11 | +$0.02 |
| Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.365 | $1.82 | −$0.27 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.130 | $1.18 | −$0.91 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.114 | $0.79 | −$1.30 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.770 | 0.275 | $0.75 | −$1.34 |
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $750 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.100 | $0.52 | −$1.57 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.03at 0.420Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.19at 0.610Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
- +$-0.04at 0.510Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
- +$-0.04at 0.510New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 16:38 | Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.4199999236 | $2.09 |
| 08-04 08:30 | Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.4199999236 | $2.09 |
| 08-04 00:29 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $750 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.09 |
| 08-03 16:28 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999303 | $2.09 |
| 08-03 08:26 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.2999999282 | $2.09 |
| 08-02 21:14 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.2299999285 | $2.09 |
| 08-02 01:47 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.7699999484 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 16:40 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.6699997852 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 16:36 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.7499997309 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 06:09 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.04 |
| 07-31 22:08 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999264 | $2.08 |
| 07-31 14:07 | Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.3499999246 | $2.09 |
| 07-31 05:37 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999264 | $2.08 |
| 07-30 19:51 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999264 | $2.08 |
| 07-29 21:29 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |