9507
0x88cc2e5c93831cdf4aa6eb94ea6b65e6c718076c
- Realised P&L
- $10.57
- Volume
- $468.45
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $6.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? · No | 0.950 | 0.963 | $2.03 | +$0.03 |
| Amazon 2026 capex above $170B? · Yes | 0.987 | 0.984 | $1.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.962 | 0.981 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? · Yes | 0.957 | 0.970 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET · Up | 0.266 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.02 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET · Down | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET · Up | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.69at 0.520Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
- +$1.66at 0.640Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$1.17at 0.460Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
- +$1.00at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
- +$0.96at 0.510Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 13:58 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.985 | $2.00 |
| 07-14 12:47 | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.985 | $2.00 |
| 07-10 09:47 | Amazon 2026 capex above $170B? | BUY | 0.9869999956 | $2.00 |
| 07-09 15:31 | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9779998709 | $2.00 |
| 07-01 09:06 | Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | BUY | 0.9569999904 | $1.00 |
| 06-25 01:45 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.985999999 | $2.00 |
| 06-23 10:03 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.9749995247 | $2.00 |
| 06-18 12:42 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.9759999922 | $2.00 |
| 06-13 13:41 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.00 |
| 06-09 02:34 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? | BUY | 0.9869997202 | $2.00 |
| 06-04 08:55 | Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in the US in June? | BUY | 0.984 | $2.00 |
| 06-02 00:30 | Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? | BUY | 0.9889999955 | $2.00 |
| 05-28 07:35 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.994 | $4.65 |
| 05-28 07:34 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $2.00 |
| 05-22 07:18 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30? | BUY | 0.9839996576 | $2.00 |