0x88361C7A0954f90F80aCFf8b6B20e172b01366b4-1763020077595
0x88361c7a0954f90f80acff8b6b20e172b01366b4
- Realised P&L
- $58.00
- Volume
- $3.2k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $123.25
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · No | 0.680 | 0.805 | $59.19 | +$9.19 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.115 | $47.41 | −$34.87 |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.115 | $16.65 | −$12.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$150.26at 0.300Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$27.59at 0.593US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
- +$25.27at 0.847Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026?
- +$16.28at 0.860Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$3.33at 0.900Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-13 11:05 | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.86 |
| 05-11 12:20 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.6799999984 | $50.00 |
| 05-01 16:31 | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | BUY | 0.0695042013 | $30.00 |
| 04-30 19:32 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $10.00 |
| 04-30 19:32 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999991 | $20.00 |
| 04-30 08:55 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $19.99 |
| 04-30 08:55 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.819999982 | $20.00 |
| 04-25 21:02 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.2854330363 | $4.71 |
| 04-25 21:02 | Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.2446095151 | $9.40 |
| 04-25 21:01 | Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.1828399789 | $18.69 |
| 04-25 20:59 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.2308475947 | $9.38 |
| 04-25 20:58 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.1962323391 | $9.36 |
| 04-25 20:58 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.189999988 | $9.35 |
| 04-25 20:58 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.1912338407 | $46.76 |
| 04-25 20:36 | Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | SELL | 0.94 | $52.22 |