0x87E7FCEE78E26DcE7d9604d73a1c24110641d0B5-1770804565016
0x87e7fcee78e26dce7d9604d73a1c24110641d0b5
- Realised P&L
- $3.6k
- Volume
- $33.2k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $625.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration93.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$385.07at 0.185Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
- +$11.07at 0.802US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$9.45at 0.640Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$6.40at 0.200Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$-0.11at 0.209AI bubble burst in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-24 22:59 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $18.00 |
| 07-24 19:53 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | SELL | 0.86 | $97.76 |
| 07-24 19:52 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $174.00 |
| 07-10 18:42 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0619999985 | $38.33 |
| 07-10 18:35 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | SELL | 0.8680212766 | $40.80 |
| 07-06 23:05 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 07-06 23:05 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.145 | $10.15 |
| 07-06 23:04 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 07-02 23:49 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.157 | $10.99 |
| 07-02 23:47 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.157 | $10.99 |
| 07-02 23:47 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.205 | $10.25 |
| 07-02 23:47 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $12.00 |
| 07-02 23:46 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $18.00 |
| 07-02 23:45 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.205 | $10.25 |
| 07-02 23:45 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.157 | $10.99 |