light2026
0x85d22a973e817f87afe0a7fd346a39823cce7479
- Realised P&L
- $9.8k
- Volume
- $410.7k
- Markets traded
- 1,589
- Open portfolio
- $110.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,589
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$301.07at 0.271Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1?
- +$299.56at 0.840Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 6?
- +$229.35at 0.090Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16?
- +$210.40at 0.198Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11?
- +$187.17at 0.916Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 07:09 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.82 |
| 08-08 07:07 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 8? | SELL | 0.7 | $57.92 |
| 08-08 07:00 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.3577777778 | $16.10 |
| 08-08 07:00 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.1615589554 | $6.12 |
| 08-08 07:00 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.07 | $2.10 |
| 08-08 07:00 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.25 |
| 08-08 06:59 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.69 | $13.80 |
| 08-08 06:57 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.65 | $6.50 |
| 08-08 06:50 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 8? | SELL | 0.5443076923 | $8.84 |
| 08-08 06:50 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.52 | $16.12 |
| 08-08 06:47 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 8? | SELL | 0.1 | $2.25 |
| 08-08 06:47 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.95 |
| 08-08 06:47 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.1411396011 | $2.97 |
| 08-08 06:30 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 8? | SELL | 0.31 | $1.55 |
| 08-08 06:30 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |