ArienNasr
0x82c94c218d9c102fbe58b92f7c7c920a6b4736fc
- Realised P&L
- $-10.0k
- Volume
- $456.3k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $99.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.9kat 0.600Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?
- +$3.1kat 0.626Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
- +$2.1kat 0.489US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
- +$1.8kat 0.728Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
- +$1.0kat 0.550 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 16:46 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $92.46 |
| 08-07 16:45 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $21.00 |
| 08-07 08:27 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0413218248 | $425.85 |
| 08-07 01:03 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | SELL | 0.16 | $190.72 |
| 08-07 01:02 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | SELL | 0.17 | $1.36 |
| 08-06 19:05 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.16 | $123.23 |
| 08-06 18:36 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $540.50 |
| 08-06 18:36 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $253.25 |
| 08-05 02:07 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.274 | $43.90 |
| 08-03 20:39 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.76468 | $71.69 |
| 08-02 02:40 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $110.55 |
| 08-02 02:27 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.39 | $546.00 |
| 07-31 23:52 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $32.64 |
| 07-31 23:29 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $488.19 |
| 07-31 23:26 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $252.00 |