567689
0x82ab5f4ac05003b44b8a2b3afa9afdbb92e44f98
- Realised P&L
- $-58.45
- Volume
- $24.8k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $185.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 3-9? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $185.53 | −$0.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.36at 0.874Seahawks vs. Patriots
- +$2.89at 0.963Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
- +$1.11at 0.994Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June?
- +$0.93at 0.990Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?
- +$0.80at 0.005Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 13:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.9979946237 | $185.63 |
| 07-02 11:04 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July? | BUY | 0.99 | $185.00 |
| 06-15 11:33 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? | BUY | 0.994 | $184.00 |
| 06-08 11:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? | BUY | 0.999 | $184.00 |
| 06-02 11:52 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 June 1-7? | BUY | 0.997 | $179.46 |
| 05-25 13:28 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 25-31? | BUY | 0.999 | $182.82 |
| 04-12 10:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.959 | $182.21 |
| 04-12 10:44 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.027 | $2.70 |
| 04-03 10:34 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.021 | $2.10 |
| 03-26 03:10 | Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5) | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 03-25 01:37 | Hawks vs. Pistons | BUY | 0.6 | $66.00 |
| 03-25 01:23 | Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.012 | $1.20 |
| 03-22 01:52 | Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 03-21 02:00 | Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.987 | $98.70 |
| 03-16 05:53 | Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.988 | $98.80 |