0x81771d582ae390d496bc189d89afebaca1e56a9b
- Realised P&L
- $30.71
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $7.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 7? · Yes | 0.306 | 0.145 | $7.04 | −$7.81 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 7? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.010 | $0.28 | −$1.43 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$58.73at 0.255Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 31?
- +$41.70at 0.381Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 4?
- +$41.57at 0.191Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 26?
- +$7.72at 0.349Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 30?
- +$5.70at 0.168Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 14:11 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.06 | $1.71 |
| 08-06 14:10 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.305880385 | $14.85 |
| 08-06 11:16 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.3499998218 | $1.08 |
| 08-06 11:16 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.2899999593 | $4.42 |
| 08-05 15:36 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.0651951349 | $1.99 |
| 08-05 14:28 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.42 |
| 08-05 14:28 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.00 |
| 08-05 14:22 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.04 |
| 08-05 14:09 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.09 |
| 08-05 13:48 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.18 | $1.88 |
| 08-05 12:14 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.28 | $3.22 |
| 08-05 12:14 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.2715661618 | $1.61 |
| 08-05 12:09 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.0382406612 | $1.14 |
| 08-05 11:49 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.2999998515 | $1.01 |
| 08-05 11:49 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.2981643691 | $3.20 |