Michael21led
0x8162cc26ef21e65e98193bbfa17d4c4b30cb7646
- Realised P&L
- $-0.15
- Volume
- $11.31
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $9.90
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- ClearOpen concentration20.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? · Yes | 0.947 | 0.947 | $2.00 | −$0.00 |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.915 | $1.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.655 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.984 | 0.983 | $1.00 | −$0.00 |
| Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.865 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.835 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Frank Klingebiel win the next Salzgitter mayoral election? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.890 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · Yes | 0.986 | 0.913 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 21:56 | Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? | BUY | 0.9469999867 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 21:55 | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999816 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 21:53 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 21:53 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.84 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 21:51 | Will Frank Klingebiel win the next Salzgitter mayoral election? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 21:50 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9839991577 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 21:49 | Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 21:46 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.9859997614 | $1.00 |