WrongManyTimes
0x8090ba84e74f8d2c4d1807ec4a21b942533f42c1
- Realised P&L
- $809.05
- Volume
- $697.4k
- Markets traded
- 1,073
- Open portfolio
- $164.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,073
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration45.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clube do Remo vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 0.5 · Over | 0.910 | 1.000 | $164.75 | +$14.75 |
| Will Santos FC win on 2026-07-25? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$312.27 |
| Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-02? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.00 |
| Will Sporting CP win on 2026-08-08? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$117.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.3kat 0.193Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$2.5kat 0.690France vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5
- +$2.3kat 0.750Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5
- +$2.1kat 0.600Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?
- +$1.3kat 0.738Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 20:11 | Clube do Remo vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.9099999997 | $150.00 |
| 08-08 15:55 | Will Sporting CP win on 2026-08-08? | BUY | 0.78 | $117.00 |
| 08-08 12:13 | Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.9399999997 | $110.00 |
| 08-07 18:47 | Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Zandschulp (+1.5) | BUY | 0.6199999944 | $40.00 |
| 08-05 12:19 | Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-05? | BUY | 0.7399999994 | $247.00 |
| 08-05 12:18 | National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca | BUY | 0.5899999992 | $147.00 |
| 08-02 20:56 | Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-02? | BUY | 0.5199999991 | $110.00 |
| 08-01 13:00 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.330493479 | $2.0k |
| 08-01 13:00 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.3453783192 | $7.6k |
| 07-25 17:41 | Will Santos FC win on 2026-07-25? | BUY | 0.7299999999 | $312.27 |
| 07-25 17:38 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.38 | $325.28 |
| 07-24 19:14 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.40 |
| 07-19 21:50 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.932 | $5.2k |
| 07-19 11:38 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.59 | $3.2k |
| 07-18 11:31 | France vs. England: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6799999519 | $3.39 |