Ronald1228
0x7fa1c14b37d84fad51aea0c1d71acd7b1bcc9029
- Realised P&L
- $3.17
- Volume
- $10.1k
- Markets traded
- 350
- Open portfolio
- $125.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded350
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rachel Hurley be the TN-05 Democratic nominee? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $34.48 | −$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on August 6? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $31.77 | −$0.01 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or below on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $25.96 | −$0.03 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $21.71 | +$0.01 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $11.11 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.83at 0.993Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12?
- +$0.29at 0.993Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?
- +$0.18at 0.997Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?
- +$0.15at 0.994Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
- +$0.12at 0.999Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 01:10 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on August 6? | BUY | 0.9989999255 | $5.58 |
| 08-05 22:55 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or below on August 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.99 |
| 08-05 20:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.70 |
| 08-05 15:41 | Will Rachel Hurley be the TN-05 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.9989999865 | $34.50 |
| 08-05 11:45 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.10 |
| 08-05 10:42 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on August 6? | BUY | 0.998 | $26.20 |
| 07-31 03:30 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $21.50 |
| 07-30 19:25 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.50 |
| 07-30 18:40 | Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.50 |
| 07-30 16:32 | Iran leadership change by July 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $33.90 |
| 07-30 11:24 | Will Sian Astley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.00 |
| 07-30 07:58 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on July 30? | BUY | 0.998999983 | $33.40 |
| 07-29 23:58 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $14.18 |
| 07-29 23:56 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $19.17 |
| 07-29 23:47 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.20 |