baobaohao6666
0x7dde922b1125ef2519070e3088257f1771a471f5
- Realised P&L
- $591.87
- Volume
- $44.2k
- Markets traded
- 176
- Open portfolio
- $176.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded176
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 8? · Yes | 0.193 | 0.873 | $176.06 | +$137.05 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 8? · No | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 6? · Yes | 0.229 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 3? · Yes | 0.576 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$774.27at 0.584Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$71.70at 0.640Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 17?
- +$46.66at 0.678Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 13?
- +$46.28at 0.500Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
- +$43.26at 0.622Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 05:02 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.1988984616 | $29.58 |
| 08-08 05:02 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.179 | $5.91 |
| 08-08 05:02 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.18 | $4.50 |
| 08-03 06:31 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.7699999935 | $20.00 |
| 08-03 05:38 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.9475274056 | $23.34 |
| 08-03 05:35 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.8118811841 | $20.00 |
| 08-01 07:22 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 1? | SELL | 0.915804 | $22.90 |
| 08-01 06:17 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 1? | BUY | 0.8 | $20.00 |
| 07-19 02:36 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 19? | SELL | 0.946 | $29.98 |
| 07-18 15:13 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 19? | BUY | 0.837924592 | $145.00 |
| 07-08 08:12 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 8? | BUY | 0.0152215357 | $5.00 |
| 07-07 07:39 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 7? | SELL | 0.06 | $6.00 |
| 07-06 03:56 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 6? | SELL | 0.381 | $13.77 |
| 07-06 03:54 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 6? | SELL | 0.4720825819 | $29.84 |
| 07-06 03:52 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 6? | SELL | 0.5003385 | $10.01 |