Arale49
0x7701d9da3bd9d47af7f11869500aeb209c836be6
- Realised P&L
- $-55.47
- Volume
- $7.2k
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $8.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.58at 0.102Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
- +$13.79at 0.462England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$6.00at 0.250Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?
- +$5.54at 0.558Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?
- +$5.32at 0.524Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-24 01:16 | Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 07-24 01:16 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 01:39 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4099998237 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 01:38 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.279 | $1.23 |
| 07-19 01:37 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0729999872 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 01:33 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.409 | $5.99 |
| 07-15 21:22 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4199999953 | $24.87 |
| 07-14 20:54 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4624999946 | $11.87 |
| 07-14 20:52 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.197 | $10.11 |
| 07-14 20:48 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.65 | $2.09 |
| 07-12 00:00 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.5749999952 | $15.00 |
| 07-10 18:37 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.179999958 | $3.00 |
| 07-08 15:28 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.5799999954 | $5.00 |
| 07-08 15:27 | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.1399999627 | $3.00 |
| 07-07 20:05 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.619999969 | $4.00 |