moneyIsNotReal123
0x74d04dfe34395f13a6bcf7571540c21a659fdc07
- Realised P&L
- $20.40
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $45.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)89.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 7? · Up | 0.520 | 0.665 | $30.17 | +$6.58 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 7? · Down | 0.457 | 0.325 | $14.74 | −$5.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.07at 0.880Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 28?
- +$4.10at 0.890Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 29?
- +$3.75at 0.895Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 27?
- +$3.74at 0.903Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 28?
- +$3.60at 0.890Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 09:41 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 7? | SELL | 0.36 | $0.56 |
| 08-06 22:22 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 7? | BUY | 0.5199999978 | $9.54 |
| 08-06 22:22 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 7? | SELL | 0.46 | $0.08 |
| 08-06 22:13 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 7? | BUY | 0.52 | $14.04 |
| 08-06 21:44 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 7? | SELL | 0.47 | $2.39 |
| 08-06 21:44 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 7? | SELL | 0.48 | $2.44 |
| 08-06 21:35 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 7? | SELL | 0.47 | $0.07 |
| 08-06 21:35 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 7? | BUY | 0.4899999784 | $2.50 |
| 08-06 17:12 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6? | SELL | 0.7495057034 | $3.94 |
| 08-06 17:11 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6? | SELL | 0.22 | $11.00 |
| 08-06 13:35 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6? | SELL | 0.45 | $1.30 |
| 08-06 13:33 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6? | SELL | 0.48 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 13:33 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6? | SELL | 0.48 | $0.38 |
| 08-02 21:28 | Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.0096981923 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 06:41 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.9659999982 | $9.67 |