FarseerProphecies
0x746fb1be8434cfa4398c124aeff69f034e3e566d
- Realised P&L
- $-39.0k
- Volume
- $2.81M
- Markets traded
- 108
- Open portfolio
- $6.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded108
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.247 | 0.205 | $6.4k | −$1.3k |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes | 0.061 | 0.021 | $546.40 | −$1.0k |
| President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.77 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$894.07 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.02 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? · Yes | 0.095 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.0kat 0.815Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
- +$1.9kat 0.350US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.280Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
- +$1.3kat 0.324Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
- +$449.46at 0.477Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 21:05 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.003 | $2.44 |
| 07-26 22:06 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | SELL | 0.003 | $3.51 |
| 07-25 21:32 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.0068194083 | $40.92 |
| 07-25 03:47 | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 07-25 03:46 | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | SELL | 0.001 | $2.16 |
| 07-25 02:23 | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | SELL | 0.012 | $142.32 |
| 07-24 18:20 | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | BUY | 0.033 | $28.38 |
| 07-24 18:19 | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | BUY | 0.03290041 | $263.20 |
| 07-23 22:15 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | SELL | 0.033 | $343.20 |
| 07-23 16:39 | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | BUY | 0.07 | $182.00 |
| 07-23 16:37 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.3 | $150.00 |
| 07-20 22:26 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.022 | $13.20 |
| 07-20 17:42 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.139 | $13.90 |
| 07-20 17:40 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.024 | $6.86 |
| 07-19 08:28 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 19? | SELL | 0.0130282848 | $6.82 |