ManuelLamb8804
0x708a29197b7205945091d3e8d9260d5ad6c968b9
- Realised P&L
- $-2.0k
- Volume
- $72.5k
- Markets traded
- 268
- Open portfolio
- $184.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded268
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$361.05at 0.170Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$83.84at 0.310Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?
- +$75.16at 0.140Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?
- +$44.60at 0.415Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?
- +$38.91at 0.167Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-09 11:58 | Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $32.83 |
| 04-07 11:25 | Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $33.81 |
| 03-10 12:28 | Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March? | SELL | 0.65 | $92.30 |
| 03-06 07:20 | Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March? | BUY | 0.83 | $117.86 |
| 03-06 05:52 | Will MrBeast say "Challenge" during his next YouTube video? | BUY | 0.19 | $87.40 |
| 02-24 23:46 | Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | SELL | 0.989 | $21.76 |
| 02-19 04:58 | Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.047 | $25.90 |
| 02-17 18:25 | Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%? | SELL | 0.852 | $25.56 |
| 02-17 17:11 | Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple? | SELL | 0.82 | $46.74 |
| 02-17 06:49 | Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.229 | $126.18 |
| 02-15 22:30 | Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple? | SELL | 0.88 | $36.96 |
| 02-15 04:39 | Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple? | BUY | 0.88 | $87.12 |
| 02-14 13:18 | Netanyahu arrested by March 31? | SELL | 0.991 | $21.80 |
| 02-13 07:35 | Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? | SELL | 0.65 | $65.00 |
| 02-13 00:56 | Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? | BUY | 0.81 | $81.00 |