PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

ManuelLamb8804

0x708a29197b7205945091d3e8d9260d5ad6c968b9

Realised P&L
$-2.0k
Volume
$72.5k
Markets traded
268
Open portfolio
$184.07

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded268
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration67.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration51.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
04-09 11:58Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026?SELL0.67$32.83
04-07 11:25Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026?BUY0.69$33.81
03-10 12:28Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?SELL0.65$92.30
03-06 07:20Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?BUY0.83$117.86
03-06 05:52Will MrBeast say "Challenge" during his next YouTube video?BUY0.19$87.40
02-24 23:46Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?SELL0.989$21.76
02-19 04:58Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?SELL0.047$25.90
02-17 18:25Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?SELL0.852$25.56
02-17 17:11Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?SELL0.82$46.74
02-17 06:49Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?BUY0.229$126.18
02-15 22:30Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?SELL0.88$36.96
02-15 04:39Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?BUY0.88$87.12
02-14 13:18Netanyahu arrested by March 31?SELL0.991$21.80
02-13 07:35Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?SELL0.65$65.00
02-13 00:56Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?BUY0.81$81.00