harleylucy613
0x6b3724d36b6e003cbbcf6eba2fd6acc13ca0c5f6
- Realised P&L
- $0.60
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $1.56
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.21at 0.933Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland?
- +$0.49at 0.957US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?
- +$0.31at 0.015Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.19at 0.967Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$0.16at 0.862Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-27 01:23 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL | 0.865 | $25.95 |
| 05-27 01:23 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY | 0.862 | $46.55 |
| 05-26 18:08 | Will Alberta join the US? | BUY | 0.043 | $1.63 |
| 05-26 09:08 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $46.44 |
| 05-26 06:32 | Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.017 | $0.29 |
| 05-26 03:30 | Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.015 | $2.29 |
| 05-25 03:43 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.971 | $46.61 |
| 05-24 23:54 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.967 | $46.42 |
| 07-17 10:06 | Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | SELL | 0.964 | $1.93 |
| 06-26 11:09 | Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | SELL | 0.026 | $1.33 |
| 06-11 04:38 | Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? | BUY | 0.92 | $13.80 |
| 06-10 22:39 | Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? | SELL | 0.941 | $9.41 |
| 06-09 22:43 | Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? | BUY | 0.991 | $13.87 |
| 06-09 17:04 | Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? | SELL | 0.983 | $13.76 |
| 06-09 07:47 | Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? | BUY | 0.983 | $13.76 |