DecentB8
0x6adb47ec0cc3da46ede9dc4dfe34302d86a9f27c
- Realised P&L
- $-2.84
- Volume
- $177.9k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $6.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30? · No | 0.954 | 0.918 | $6.35 | −$0.25 |
| North Korea missile launch by November 15? · No | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.17at 0.959Will US gov sell Bitcoin before Trump inauguration?
- +$0.15at 0.930Taylor Swift engaged in 2024?
- +$0.13at 0.968Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.12at 0.960Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$0.11at 0.987Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 03:30 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30? | BUY | 0.9539999974 | $6.60 |
| 08-04 03:29 | Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? | SELL | 0.91 | $3.14 |
| 07-23 13:05 | Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $3.28 |
| 06-01 07:12 | Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? | BUY | 0.9889997334 | $2.30 |
| 06-01 07:12 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.977 | $7.12 |
| 05-10 05:47 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.9599999451 | $7.00 |
| 05-10 05:47 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.993 | $8.33 |
| 04-08 13:10 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.988999999 | $8.30 |
| 04-02 07:33 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C or below on April 4? | BUY | 0.9899999145 | $8.21 |
| 03-21 08:09 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 23? | BUY | 0.9869999996 | $8.11 |
| 03-17 09:32 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 20? | BUY | 0.9926778679 | $8.05 |
| 03-17 09:31 | Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.984 | $8.05 |
| 02-23 16:24 | Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.967999998 | $7.92 |
| 02-23 16:23 | Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? | SELL | 0.99 | $7.92 |
| 01-29 04:49 | Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? | BUY | 0.9979998778 | $7.99 |