gramschmidt
0x65385c9376b0ea54bcaa71706598ae56fc5b9392
- Realised P&L
- $-257.10
- Volume
- $138.6k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$200.00at 0.600Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?
- +$169.88at 0.944Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$164.92at 0.803Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
- +$148.20at 0.750Will Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre?
- +$99.40at 0.240Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 13:24 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.978 | $22.00 |
| 07-31 13:15 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | SELL | 0.9272056367 | $88.83 |
| 07-29 09:51 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $154.00 |
| 07-29 09:04 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.073 | $13.50 |
| 07-28 23:31 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $5.94 |
| 07-28 17:08 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.18 | $23.40 |
| 07-28 17:05 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $5.84 |
| 07-28 00:03 | Will Manuel Bompard announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | SELL | 0.8813984733 | $115.46 |
| 07-26 17:54 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $14.00 |
| 07-26 17:34 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0692 | $13.84 |
| 07-26 14:20 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.068 | $11.90 |
| 07-26 14:18 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.071 | $1.06 |
| 07-26 13:09 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.073 | $4.38 |
| 07-26 10:46 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.067 | $1.75 |
| 07-26 10:45 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0646091122 | $3.30 |