eth234
0x61c7de135712327570bc8b73cfb6b9007d8101dd
- Realised P&L
- $-2.70
- Volume
- $310.6k
- Markets traded
- 446
- Open portfolio
- $193.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded446
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.513 | 0.345 | $103.47 | −$50.53 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.645 | 0.525 | $52.50 | −$12.00 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 7? · Up | 0.490 | 0.665 | $33.25 | +$8.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$718.51at 0.539Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch?
- +$250.00at 0.500Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during "60 Minutes" on November 2?
- +$230.01at 0.316SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2?
- +$214.10at 0.850US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$188.95at 0.720US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 14:35 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 30? | SELL | 0.9416 | $94.16 |
| 07-21 05:48 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $70.35 |
| 07-18 01:54 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.41 | $41.00 |
| 07-15 00:29 | Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.8 | $80.00 |
| 07-11 08:02 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3575 | $35.75 |
| 07-11 00:35 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.21 | $42.00 |
| 07-09 21:29 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | SELL | 0.85 | $85.00 |
| 07-09 14:46 | Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Morocco? | BUY | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 07-07 10:58 | Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Colombia? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 07-06 03:25 | Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.085 | $14.16 |
| 07-05 14:02 | Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Norway? | BUY | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 07-04 15:00 | Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 3 France? | BUY | 0.14 | $14.00 |
| 07-04 13:12 | Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Morocco? | BUY | 0.12 | $12.00 |
| 07-04 03:24 | Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Ghana? | SELL | 0.76 | $76.00 |
| 07-03 10:51 | Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Ghana? | BUY | 0.16 | $16.00 |