Vincent5251
0x5dfa7b9e7a2153ea9cf78e2e5cb7730046a36ee8
- Realised P&L
- $3.45
- Volume
- $10.2k
- Markets traded
- 359
- Open portfolio
- $86.78
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded359
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 6? · Yes | 0.998 | 1.000 | $59.79 | +$0.09 |
| Will Joshua James be the TN-04 Republican nominee? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $26.99 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.55at 0.995Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August?
- +$0.32at 0.994Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
- +$0.28at 0.998Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on September 30?
- +$0.26at 0.994Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$0.23at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 22:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 6? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.60 |
| 08-05 21:26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 6? | BUY | 0.998 | $30.10 |
| 08-05 14:32 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 5? | BUY | 0.9989999678 | $27.10 |
| 08-05 12:23 | Will Joshua James be the TN-04 Republican nominee? | BUY | 0.999 | $27.00 |
| 07-31 02:11 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C or higher on July 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $27.10 |
| 07-30 22:25 | Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | SELL | 0.997 | $14.38 |
| 07-30 22:23 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? | SELL | 0.998 | $17.79 |
| 07-30 22:20 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in July? | SELL | 0.998 | $25.17 |
| 07-30 19:57 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.20 |
| 07-30 18:32 | Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY | 0.99799998 | $14.40 |
| 07-30 16:29 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? | BUY | 0.997999963 | $17.80 |
| 07-30 13:31 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.40 |
| 07-30 11:14 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 97°F or below on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.40 |
| 07-30 09:25 | Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.50 |
| 07-30 08:39 | Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $6.39 |