arrbee
0x5df911c3092495431af3dffd82e5536cde2a0a67
- Realised P&L
- $-16.81
- Volume
- $2.0k
- Markets traded
- 92
- Open portfolio
- $2.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded92
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 7? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.405 | $2.75 | −$0.24 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.631 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 31? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 28? · Yes | 0.604 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.45 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 22? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.35 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 20? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.15 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 10? · Yes | 0.416 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.24 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.18at 0.480Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 26?
- +$2.76at 0.520Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 20?
- +$2.48at 0.540Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 23?
- +$1.52at 0.500Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$1.00at 0.720Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 20:23 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.39 | $2.39 |
| 08-05 10:54 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.4899999951 | $3.00 |
| 08-05 06:15 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.42 | $1.05 |
| 08-05 03:38 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 6? | SELL | 0.54 | $2.46 |
| 08-04 11:25 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.37 | $2.05 |
| 08-04 11:25 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.46 | $3.00 |
| 08-04 11:25 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.42 | $2.29 |
| 08-04 10:48 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.49 | $3.00 |
| 08-04 05:51 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 5? | BUY | 0.44 | $3.00 |
| 08-01 15:38 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.39 | $2.49 |
| 08-01 11:04 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.53 | $1.76 |
| 08-01 09:37 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 1? | SELL | 0.34 | $1.25 |
| 08-01 09:36 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 1? | SELL | 0.33 | $1.65 |
| 08-01 06:22 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 2? | BUY | 0.37 | $3.00 |
| 07-31 08:18 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.29 | $1.07 |