Cactus969
0x5c7d0f8133ed2ec8419525251579978c53ac182a
- Realised P&L
- $-6.5k
- Volume
- $134.5k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $2.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.552 | 0.490 | $1.2k | −$154.40 |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.695 | $555.92 | −$52.08 |
| Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.805 | $402.50 | +$42.50 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.230 | $230.00 | −$220.00 |
| Ethereum all time high by December 31? · Yes | 0.502 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.160Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
- +$1.3kat 0.709Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September?
- +$586.61at 0.561Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
- +$444.03at 0.500Ethereum above $3,600 on July 25?
- +$299.66at 0.830Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-13 11:17 | Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4 | $594.64 |
| 05-13 11:16 | Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.72 | $360.00 |
| 05-13 11:14 | Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.39 | $7.02 |
| 03-23 09:59 | Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.0536439911 | $280.36 |
| 03-23 09:58 | Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.9763000949 | $524.89 |
| 03-23 09:58 | Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.980842702 | $512.13 |
| 01-18 04:39 | Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.9576021546 | $500.00 |
| 01-18 04:39 | Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $500.00 |
| 01-13 00:18 | Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.2870078669 | $1.5k |
| 10-11 11:15 | Ethereum all time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.4499999997 | $600.00 |
| 10-11 11:15 | Ethereum all time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.4399999999 | $799.95 |
| 10-11 11:15 | Ethereum all time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.4385016398 | $500.00 |
| 10-11 11:15 | Ethereum all time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.4299999998 | $500.00 |
| 10-11 11:14 | Ethereum all time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.4228133152 | $500.00 |
| 10-11 11:14 | Ethereum all time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.4199999977 | $100.00 |