nba24
0x53f495ad0acae049b69394213fe431a170403730
- Realised P&L
- $465.24
- Volume
- $3.5k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $28.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar13.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027? · No | 0.960 | 0.955 | $9.95 | −$0.05 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.835 | $5.57 | +$0.57 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.625 | $5.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.885 | $4.76 | −$0.24 |
| Luigi Mangione tried before 2027? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.575 | $3.06 | −$1.94 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$275.83at 0.337Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
- +$246.18at 0.268Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
- +$29.07at 0.454Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET
- +$25.40at 0.914Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
- +$24.48at 0.290Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 13:29 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.7499998875 | $5.00 |
| 07-05 14:04 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.3099999622 | $5.00 |
| 07-05 14:04 | Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.5499999807 | $10.00 |
| 07-05 14:04 | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9679990304 | $10.00 |
| 07-05 14:03 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $10.00 |
| 07-05 14:03 | Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999888 | $5.00 |
| 06-21 14:48 | Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.849999983 | $5.00 |
| 06-21 14:48 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.00 |
| 06-21 14:47 | Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 14:47 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999628 | $5.00 |
| 06-21 14:47 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 06-07 15:11 | Luigi Mangione tried before 2027? | BUY | 0.9399999962 | $5.00 |
| 06-07 15:10 | Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? | BUY | 0.9399999962 | $5.00 |
| 06-07 15:08 | Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027? | BUY | 0.9599999616 | $10.00 |
| 06-07 15:08 | Will "Lesley Manville" win Best Leading Actress in a Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? | BUY | 0.8613861233 | $5.00 |