0x51cD545254eA313710442D02FD84aEa189A04230-1755875414224
0x51cd545254ea313710442d02fd84aea189a04230
- Realised P&L
- $3.65
- Volume
- $10.0k
- Markets traded
- 357
- Open portfolio
- $73.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded357
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rachel Hurley be the TN-05 Democratic nominee? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $35.08 | −$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 41°C or higher on August 7? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $13.39 | −$0.01 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 6? · No | 0.997 | 0.997 | $13.10 | +$0.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or below on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $11.89 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.73at 0.993Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?
- +$0.35at 0.995Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
- +$0.20at 0.994Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$0.16at 0.993Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?
- +$0.11at 0.999Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 03:05 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or below on August 6? | BUY | 0.9989999924 | $11.90 |
| 08-06 00:10 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 41°C or higher on August 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.40 |
| 08-05 18:50 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 6? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $13.10 |
| 08-05 14:39 | Will Rachel Hurley be the TN-05 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.9989999295 | $11.20 |
| 08-05 12:12 | Will Rachel Hurley be the TN-05 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.9989999967 | $23.90 |
| 07-31 01:52 | Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.9979999723 | $5.70 |
| 07-30 22:29 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of July 27 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $28.96 |
| 07-30 21:03 | Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9979999958 | $16.70 |
| 07-30 18:07 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.00 |
| 07-30 14:42 | Will Sian Astley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.60 |
| 07-30 14:14 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on July 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $21.92 |
| 07-30 13:36 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.90 |
| 07-30 10:38 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on July 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $21.90 |
| 07-30 09:42 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.40 |
| 07-30 08:57 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by July 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $27.07 |