Astma
0x50ffeb71204be52d76cc35acc5b4c027e0b34396
- Realised P&L
- $59.66
- Volume
- $4.9k
- Markets traded
- 72
- Open portfolio
- $94.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded72
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August? · No | 0.991 | 0.982 | $94.09 | −$0.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.35at 0.860Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$11.61at 0.610Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?
- +$9.90at 0.804Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February?
- +$8.32at 0.890Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25?
- +$5.21at 0.973Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 17:38 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August? | BUY | 0.9909999999 | $95.00 |
| 07-05 16:11 | Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.8599999899 | $82.00 |
| 06-06 07:35 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.975 | $80.00 |
| 05-16 09:18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.9699999998 | $78.00 |
| 04-12 14:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? | BUY | 0.996 | $71.75 |
| 03-17 19:43 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? | BUY | 0.9809999993 | $70.42 |
| 02-28 10:33 | Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.9699999996 | $50.53 |
| 02-23 08:33 | Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.9519999987 | $17.45 |
| 01-31 05:00 | Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February? | BUY | 0.8040630337 | $40.63 |
| 01-29 04:38 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $40.47 |
| 01-28 10:21 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-28? | BUY | 0.95 | $76.45 |
| 01-25 20:45 | Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Australian Open? | BUY | 0.989 | $75.60 |
| 01-22 09:29 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25? | BUY | 0.8899999921 | $67.29 |
| 01-22 09:28 | Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.994 | $67.28 |
| 01-07 07:11 | Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9789999999 | $66.27 |