0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3
0x503fc56715e48b6ede4c7289135be83a88208989
- Realised P&L
- $6.1k
- Volume
- $1.74M
- Markets traded
- 870
- Open portfolio
- $2.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded870
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 5? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $2.8k | +$4.26 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on August 5? · Yes | 0.984 | 0.980 | $34.47 | −$0.15 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on July 31? · No | 0.986 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$833.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$526.64at 0.210US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$496.13at 0.935Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?
- +$494.35at 0.930Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
- +$403.50at 0.210Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?
- +$391.03at 0.953Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 18:25 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.0k |
| 08-04 18:14 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on August 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $117.99 |
| 08-04 18:12 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on August 5? | BUY | 0.9842649986 | $34.62 |
| 08-04 18:00 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on August 4? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.98 |
| 08-04 18:00 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on August 4? | BUY | 0.9989838253 | $617.62 |
| 08-04 04:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $87.04 |
| 08-04 02:49 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on August 3? | BUY | 0.9988851103 | $86.94 |
| 08-03 21:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.998 | $762.59 |
| 08-03 21:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.999 | $903.15 |
| 08-03 16:57 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on August 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.9k |
| 08-02 00:34 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on August 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.8k |
| 08-01 06:30 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on August 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.8k |
| 07-31 23:48 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.3k |
| 07-31 23:48 | Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $444.65 |
| 07-31 22:18 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $109.60 |