pengpeng32
0x50364f9378c3a946ffec255cee1a32969d2d3aad
- Realised P&L
- $-4.7k
- Volume
- $289.3k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $15.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? · No | 0.951 | 0.933 | $6.1k | −$117.06 |
| Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? · No | 0.964 | 0.972 | $5.3k | +$40.76 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.194 | 0.135 | $1.2k | −$541.10 |
| Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.333 | 0.165 | $1.2k | −$1.2k |
| Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? · No | 0.930 | 0.944 | $1.1k | +$16.05 |
| Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.579 | 0.200 | $454.63 | −$861.08 |
| Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.420 | $152.04 | −$65.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.4kat 0.904Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$1.0kat 0.440Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
- +$589.51at 0.776Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?
- +$285.38at 0.808Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?
- +$146.70at 0.783Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 22:25 | Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? | BUY | 0.929 | $185.80 |
| 06-30 22:25 | Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.62 | $91.72 |
| 06-30 22:24 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $380.00 |
| 06-30 02:50 | Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.626970684 | $144.36 |
| 06-30 02:49 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.03699053 | $73.98 |
| 05-22 02:53 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.6k |
| 04-30 07:09 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $514.01 |
| 03-23 22:49 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $312.79 |
| 03-23 22:44 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $2.7k |
| 03-23 22:42 | Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? | BUY | 0.9297142857 | $650.80 |
| 03-23 22:37 | Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.684619657 | $405.54 |
| 03-23 22:36 | Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0030319859 | $28.44 |
| 03-23 11:42 | Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.949 | $1.6k |
| 03-11 21:02 | Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $99.70 |
| 03-11 21:01 | Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.249 | $498.00 |