grunix
0x4f8cb61637b3bbfd6305db6e4b5807d10882f8bd
- Realised P&L
- $38.03
- Volume
- $66.5k
- Markets traded
- 1,186
- Open portfolio
- $517.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,186
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration18.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Chicago Sky (-2.5) · Los Angeles Sparks | 0.482 | 0.475 | $226.46 | −$3.54 |
| Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) · New York Liberty | 0.456 | 0.435 | $76.29 | −$3.71 |
| Seattle Storm vs. New York Liberty: O/U 184.5 · Over | 0.460 | 0.445 | $38.70 | −$1.30 |
| Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) · Phoenix Mercury | 0.472 | 0.445 | $37.69 | −$2.31 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.060 | $37.50 | −$62.50 |
| Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) · New York Liberty | 0.470 | 0.475 | $20.21 | +$0.21 |
| Los Angeles Sparks vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 188.5 · Over | 0.470 | 0.455 | $19.37 | −$0.63 |
| Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream · Atlanta Dream | 0.680 | 0.695 | $10.22 | +$0.22 |
| Los Angeles Sparks vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 187.5 · Over | 0.470 | 0.475 | $10.11 | +$0.11 |
| Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 182.5 · Under | 0.480 | 0.475 | $9.90 | −$0.10 |
| Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 179.5 · Under | 0.410 | 0.405 | $9.88 | −$0.12 |
| Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream · Phoenix Mercury | 0.350 | 0.305 | $8.71 | −$1.29 |
| Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 165.5 · Under | 0.440 | 0.435 | $4.79 | −$0.05 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET · Down | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Los Cabos Open: Arthur Gea vs Michael Zheng · Michael Zheng | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$89.74at 0.470Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
- +$71.79at 0.690Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
- +$67.24at 0.877Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
- +$60.27at 0.841Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
- +$52.79at 0.330Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 18:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 18:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET | BUY | 0.95 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 18:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET | SELL | 0.44 | $25.58 |
| 08-05 18:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET | BUY | 0.8599999986 | $50.00 |
| 08-05 18:39 | Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 182.5 | BUY | 0.4799999827 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 18:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET | BUY | 0.9499999971 | $50.00 |
| 08-05 18:29 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.85 | $29.92 |
| 08-05 18:29 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.8254432132 | $29.40 |
| 08-05 18:29 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.7878648626 | $29.52 |
| 08-05 18:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | BUY | 0.8500424503 | $159.96 |
| 08-05 18:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | BUY | 0.7299999679 | $5.00 |
| 08-05 18:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET | BUY | 0.92 | $50.00 |
| 08-05 18:06 | Spread: Chicago Sky (-2.5) | BUY | 0.4699999915 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 18:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET | BUY | 0.85 | $2.57 |
| 08-05 18:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET | BUY | 0.6799999728 | $5.00 |