babyRFK
0x4f7f2012f43bd8067e4cc561025b1cfc0b42f36e
- Realised P&L
- $4.13
- Volume
- $54.6k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $40.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obama divorce before 2027? · No | 0.927 | 0.963 | $37.51 | +$1.38 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Obama · Something | 0.070 | 0.080 | $3.12 | +$0.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.31at 0.967Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2025?
- +$0.52at 0.246Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
- +$0.42at 0.989No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?
- +$0.30at 0.992Will a Republican win Missouri Presidential Election?
- +$0.15at 0.996Will XRP flip ETH in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-26 08:09 | Nothing Ever Happens: Obama | BUY | 0.07 | $2.73 |
| 02-26 08:08 | Obama divorce before 2027? | BUY | 0.9272004106 | $36.13 |
| 08-01 14:20 | Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2025? | BUY | 0.9666183391 | $37.99 |
| 02-17 10:11 | Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? | BUY | 0.999 | $37.95 |
| 01-23 14:39 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.9889999998 | $37.54 |
| 12-21 17:53 | Will XRP flip ETH in 2024? | BUY | 0.996 | $37.39 |
| 11-23 16:24 | Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? | BUY | 0.003 | $37.00 |
| 11-05 17:42 | Will a Republican win Missouri Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.992 | $37.08 |
| 11-05 17:42 | Will a Democrat win Missouri Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.9885811966 | $37.01 |
| 10-30 17:24 | Will a Democrat win Missouri Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.996 | $37.30 |
| 10-30 17:24 | Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? | SELL | 0.998 | $28.35 |
| 10-06 15:30 | Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.003 | $9.00 |
| 10-06 15:22 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | SELL | 0.261 | $9.02 |
| 09-15 17:46 | Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.38 |
| 09-15 17:34 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | BUY | 0.2459999819 | $8.50 |