MurphyMilest
0x4ef359c9284440da5cc5bd9f264b36e29a1a70d8
- Realised P&L
- $-121.52
- Volume
- $378.72
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $25.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-32.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.865 | $11.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.685 | $8.44 | −$0.06 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.535 | $5.39 | −$0.96 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev · Joao Fonseca | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$103.91 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)? · No | 0.940 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 · Over | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? · Yes | 0.619 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.04at 0.810Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5
- +$1.67at 0.750Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners
- +$1.10at 0.820Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?
- +$1.06at 0.850Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners
- +$0.25at 0.830Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 08:42 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999821 | $8.50 |
| 08-04 08:42 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999683 | $6.35 |
| 08-04 08:41 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $12.00 |
| 07-05 08:37 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners | BUY | 0.85 | $6.00 |
| 07-05 08:37 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners | BUY | 0.75 | $5.00 |
| 07-05 08:37 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.8099999851 | $8.70 |
| 07-05 08:37 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.9 | $11.00 |
| 06-25 09:19 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $5.00 |
| 06-25 09:18 | Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? | BUY | 0.829999982 | $6.00 |
| 06-25 09:18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? | BUY | 0.6189999118 | $2.00 |
| 05-14 10:18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY | 0.997999758 | $4.00 |
| 04-10 00:24 | Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev | BUY | 0.41 | $102.04 |
| 03-09 13:53 | Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 3% and 4%? | BUY | 0.996 | $2.02 |
| 03-09 13:53 | Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.936 | $2.00 |
| 02-27 09:30 | US confirms Havana Syndrome–causing device by March 31? | BUY | 0.9599999226 | $4.96 |