0x4d826F2aD8b4fA42D7Ad08b940b696857D78a5E9-1775654030147
0x4d826f2ad8b4fa42d7ad08b940b696857d78a5e9
- Realised P&L
- $1.4k
- Volume
- $112.7k
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $2.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? · Yes | 0.335 | 0.235 | $1.2k | −$530.37 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.857 | 0.885 | $879.65 | +$27.88 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July? · No | 0.786 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$473.64 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? · No | 0.644 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$645.76 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? · No | 0.371 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$350.10 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? · No | 0.341 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$272.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$758.76at 0.617Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
- +$403.28at 0.246Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$392.04at 0.808Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?
- +$391.75at 0.668Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?
- +$327.85at 0.930Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 14:26 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.863967545 | $547.10 |
| 07-28 14:26 | Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? | SELL | 0.0359450627 | $20.25 |
| 07-28 14:25 | Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? | SELL | 0.1274471485 | $555.05 |
| 07-28 14:25 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8446243112 | $304.67 |
| 07-25 01:37 | Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $100.00 |
| 07-25 01:37 | Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999985 | $100.00 |
| 07-24 12:19 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July? | SELL | 0.4546205117 | $105.72 |
| 07-24 07:10 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | SELL | 0.5814918002 | $220.19 |
| 07-24 00:49 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July? | BUY | 0.8199999993 | $200.00 |
| 07-24 00:46 | Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? | BUY | 0.251439003 | $100.00 |
| 07-24 00:46 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July? | SELL | 0.93 | $501.20 |
| 07-23 09:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July? | BUY | 0.8 | $73.64 |
| 07-23 09:18 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY | 0.5281611276 | $200.00 |
| 07-23 09:17 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | SELL | 0.999 | $277.94 |
| 07-23 08:57 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July? | BUY | 0.9 | $485.03 |