Jaredfgn
0x4cef76e77b3938b7ca96abb0d6f80cab1c85e973
- Realised P&L
- $18.47
- Volume
- $13.2k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $22.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.375 | $22.50 | −$0.30 |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? · No | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$505.38at 0.500Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
- +$485.61at 0.500Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$171.96at 0.500Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
- +$23.41at 0.500Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$18.89at 0.500Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 02:22 | Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $53.94 |
| 08-07 02:21 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? | BUY | 0.38 | $22.80 |
| 08-07 02:20 | Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $54.00 |
| 07-14 06:57 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.611 | $22.00 |
| 07-03 02:59 | Spread: Argentina (-2.5) | BUY | 0.61 | $18.91 |
| 06-11 08:45 | Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.27 | $14.47 |
| 05-28 06:30 | Thunder vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.6 | $19.68 |
| 05-19 12:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on May 22? | BUY | 0.997 | $13.00 |
| 04-20 07:57 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $37.89 |
| 04-20 07:56 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.08 |
| 03-26 02:03 | Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.991 | $39.96 |
| 03-26 02:02 | Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 23-29? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 03-26 02:02 | Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.992 | $10.00 |
| 03-26 02:02 | Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 23-29? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.00 |
| 03-26 02:02 | Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.992 | $30.00 |