PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Occidentaliste

0x49929092c94564645683fcabd5649cd2218e9cd4

Realised P&L
$793.78
Volume
$273.3k
Markets traded
314
Open portfolio
$4.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded314
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran Nuke before 2027? · No0.8690.953$952.50+$83.50
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.8260.895$742.85+$57.65
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · No0.8170.925$647.45+$75.50
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No0.7680.875$568.75+$69.25
China x Japan military clash before 2027? · No0.8510.915$548.99+$38.50
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? · No0.9000.850$340.00$20.00
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · No0.6050.675$270.00+$28.00
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · Yes0.7050.865$132.80+$24.59
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.2860.270$81.00$4.91
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.2440.065$52.00$143.59
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%? · Yes0.5050.668$36.16+$8.84
Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026? · Yes0.5300.310$8.77$6.20
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A · PARIVISION0.7400.000$0.00$24.65
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally? · No0.8200.000$0.00$65.00
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? · No0.3700.000$0.00$55.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-23 14:12Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL0.53$264.98
06-23 14:11Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL0.989$692.30
06-22 09:52Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY0.57$84.99
06-22 09:51Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY0.5699999991$200.00
05-26 19:12US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL0.26$260.00
05-26 15:50US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY0.25$250.00
05-24 11:22US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?SELL0.85$410.49
05-18 19:10Iran closes its airspace by May 31?SELL0.39$406.37
05-18 12:12Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?SELL0.53$123.50
05-12 08:33Starmer out by May 15, 2026?BUY0.6205345116$150.00
05-11 16:48Iran closes its airspace by May 31?BUY0.3838882118$400.00
05-10 18:58Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?BUY0.4291417156$100.00
05-10 18:57US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?BUY0.5899999996$284.93
05-03 12:25Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.211$105.50
05-03 12:24Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?SELL0.87$430.65