Occidentaliste
0x49929092c94564645683fcabd5649cd2218e9cd4
- Realised P&L
- $793.78
- Volume
- $273.3k
- Markets traded
- 314
- Open portfolio
- $4.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded314
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$504.35at 0.692Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?
- +$237.30at 0.650Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$231.94at 0.485Will TKO Group Holdings (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$231.02at 0.878Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?
- +$227.32at 0.560Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-23 14:12 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.53 | $264.98 |
| 06-23 14:11 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.989 | $692.30 |
| 06-22 09:52 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.57 | $84.99 |
| 06-22 09:51 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.5699999991 | $200.00 |
| 05-26 19:12 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $260.00 |
| 05-26 15:50 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $250.00 |
| 05-24 11:22 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $410.49 |
| 05-18 19:10 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL | 0.39 | $406.37 |
| 05-18 12:12 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? | SELL | 0.53 | $123.50 |
| 05-12 08:33 | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6205345116 | $150.00 |
| 05-11 16:48 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY | 0.3838882118 | $400.00 |
| 05-10 18:58 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? | BUY | 0.4291417156 | $100.00 |
| 05-10 18:57 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999996 | $284.93 |
| 05-03 12:25 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.211 | $105.50 |
| 05-03 12:24 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $430.65 |