tNUb7u2zW8RRR32NqzjKv8Hws
0x49924df491e5cb00193c1f32324dd59eadaf00c8
- Realised P&L
- $-3.0k
- Volume
- $96.3k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $22.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.569 | 0.525 | $8.6k | −$727.50 |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.755 | 0.625 | $4.9k | −$1.0k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.670 | 0.925 | $2.8k | +$765.00 |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.934 | $2.7k | +$1.7k |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.608 | 0.305 | $2.5k | −$2.4k |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.419 | 0.460 | $449.85 | +$39.65 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.183 | 0.278 | $271.68 | +$92.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.630Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$538.83at 0.643Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$478.13at 0.358Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?
- +$147.77at 0.593Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$122.04at 0.766Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-03 19:11 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.7599999913 | $7.01 |
| 06-03 19:10 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.04 |
| 06-03 19:08 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.7638038021 | $5.8k |
| 06-03 19:02 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.1100821938 | $1.5k |
| 06-03 18:48 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.13 | $594.62 |
| 05-29 02:53 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2106227 | $2.1k |
| 05-27 19:18 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.569465173 | $9.3k |
| 05-16 00:35 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.25 | $972.25 |
| 05-15 18:02 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.018 | $1.80 |
| 05-15 18:01 | Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.10 |
| 05-12 20:12 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.6082617483 | $4.9k |
| 05-06 19:41 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL | 0.048170068 | $28.32 |
| 05-06 19:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL | 0.0501398566 | $29.51 |
| 04-30 16:31 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2799999831 | $9.92 |
| 04-30 16:30 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2898036952 | $1.3k |