TheTrader1212
0x4821f344d442e830e6738430d6f42c1762026ab1
- Realised P&L
- $-204.47
- Volume
- $29.0k
- Markets traded
- 219
- Open portfolio
- $116.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded219
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$171.17at 0.524Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?
- +$58.00at 0.380Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
- +$52.99at 0.340Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
- +$49.01at 0.655Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$45.66at 0.162Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 12:13 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.14 |
| 07-25 18:39 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.19 | $15.20 |
| 07-23 22:12 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.47 | $28.20 |
| 07-23 22:12 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | BUY | 0.39 | $31.20 |
| 07-23 22:11 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.62 | $61.05 |
| 07-23 22:10 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.47 | $9.40 |
| 07-23 21:55 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | BUY | 0.39 | $23.40 |
| 07-23 21:54 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.32 | $12.80 |
| 07-23 21:53 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 07-23 02:13 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 07-21 19:34 | Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $9.10 |
| 07-21 19:33 | Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.129 | $1.19 |
| 07-21 19:32 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.505 | $11.11 |
| 07-21 19:30 | Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.014 | $1.12 |
| 07-21 19:29 | Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.028 | $1.12 |