PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

TheTrader1212

0x4821f344d442e830e6738430d6f42c1762026ab1

Realised P&L
$-204.47
Volume
$29.0k
Markets traded
219
Open portfolio
$116.04

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded219
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration28.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.2090.205$32.80$0.60
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.3000.195$22.77$12.23
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · Yes0.1630.095$20.58$14.68
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No0.4100.210$8.82$8.40
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.1000.075$7.50$2.50
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0900.085$4.25$0.25
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.3730.505$4.04+$1.06
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.0120.042$3.73+$2.65
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.0600.034$3.02$2.38
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.0350.059$2.92+$1.17
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.0900.075$2.25$0.45
Israel military action against Yemen by July 31? · Yes0.0880.011$1.10$7.70
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes0.0280.024$0.94$0.18
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes0.0380.021$0.64$0.50
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.0260.011$0.44$0.60

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-27 12:13Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?SELL0.001$0.14
07-25 18:39Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?SELL0.19$15.20
07-23 22:12Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?BUY0.47$28.20
07-23 22:12Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?BUY0.39$31.20
07-23 22:11Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.62$61.05
07-23 22:10Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?BUY0.47$9.40
07-23 21:55Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?BUY0.39$23.40
07-23 21:54Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?SELL0.32$12.80
07-23 21:53Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?SELL0.32$6.40
07-23 02:13Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?BUY0.25$5.00
07-21 19:34Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?BUY0.13$9.10
07-21 19:33Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?BUY0.129$1.19
07-21 19:32Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.505$11.11
07-21 19:30Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?BUY0.014$1.12
07-21 19:29Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.028$1.12