0x46B867d4Fd92A48386A768eA9f3b919423658Af2-1780454782233
0x46b867d4fd92a48386a768ea9f3b919423658af2
- Realised P&L
- $-152.98
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $10.12
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.115 | $5.75 | −$1.25 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.052 | $4.37 | −$5.63 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.525 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.50 |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.96at 0.294Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?
- +$18.04at 0.632Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
- +$5.86at 0.695Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?
- +$2.93at 0.630Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?
- +$1.27at 0.440Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-17 18:40 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | SELL | 0.43 | $1.41 |
| 06-17 18:34 | Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? | BUY | 0.4399998064 | $1.00 |
| 06-17 07:49 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.7599999696 | $5.00 |
| 06-14 16:19 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.9419999848 | $3.34 |
| 06-14 03:13 | Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | SELL | 0.999 | $7.92 |
| 06-13 22:28 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.3099998295 | $1.00 |
| 06-13 22:27 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.3099998295 | $1.00 |
| 06-13 21:03 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | SELL | 0.05 | $2.29 |
| 06-13 19:10 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.8299999985 | $38.00 |
| 06-13 13:09 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.5799999954 | $5.00 |
| 06-13 02:30 | Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.6299999811 | $5.00 |
| 06-13 02:29 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.5799999818 | $5.10 |
| 06-13 01:21 | Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | BUY | 0.7299999983 | $22.00 |
| 06-12 19:26 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | BUY | 0.299999928 | $2.50 |
| 06-12 19:26 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |