Vger
0x4612d9f2720a6f4787704ac0d89764e05105d79b
- Realised P&L
- $-2.2k
- Volume
- $100.3k
- Markets traded
- 144
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded144
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$377.71at 0.480US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$300.00at 0.250Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
- +$177.85at 0.210Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$132.33at 0.600US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$112.91at 0.849Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 01:56 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.2319537102 | $421.22 |
| 06-15 01:55 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.9 | $209.30 |
| 06-11 18:00 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.11 | $82.57 |
| 06-11 17:57 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.13 | $291.62 |
| 06-09 19:02 | Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | SELL | 0.0050629214 | $16.17 |
| 06-09 01:56 | Iran leadership change by June 30? | BUY | 0.0500386664 | $20.00 |
| 06-09 00:33 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.0298680724 | $100.00 |
| 06-08 18:23 | Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $121.53 |
| 06-03 16:21 | Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.934525508 | $304.45 |
| 05-31 02:18 | Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | BUY | 0.0469561856 | $150.00 |
| 05-28 15:05 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.06 | $15.00 |
| 05-28 14:56 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL | 0.05 | $99.95 |
| 05-25 03:39 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2674550377 | $500.00 |
| 05-23 00:30 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.138563923 | $200.00 |
| 05-21 17:05 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2420244864 | $150.00 |