luo619
0x45c637f6ce1b0d058a6a15e974aebb5924aa9398
- Realised P&L
- $-10.01
- Volume
- $740.70
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $0.10
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 8? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.001 | $0.05 | −$2.72 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 8? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.001 | $0.03 | −$3.30 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 8? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$3.13 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 8? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$3.13 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 7? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.08 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 7? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.54at 0.170Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 7?
- +$0.12at 0.890Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 26?
- +$-0.03at 0.970Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 7?
- +$-0.04at 0.840Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 7?
- +$-0.15at 0.840Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 02:19 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 8? | SELL | 0.0019236603 | $0.23 |
| 08-07 19:03 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.11 | $0.55 |
| 08-07 18:33 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.03 | $0.46 |
| 08-07 18:02 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.40 |
| 08-07 15:14 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.999 | $18.73 |
| 08-06 20:13 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.17 | $3.19 |
| 08-06 20:13 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.210430622 | $3.08 |
| 08-06 20:03 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.7979665738 | $2.86 |
| 08-06 19:57 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.83 | $2.98 |
| 08-06 19:57 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 7? | SELL | 0.9592926045 | $2.98 |
| 08-06 19:10 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.84 | $3.02 |
| 08-06 18:41 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.97 | $3.02 |
| 08-06 18:41 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.84 | $3.02 |
| 08-02 02:40 | Will Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.08 |
| 08-02 02:21 | Will Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | BUY | 0.048999988 | $3.80 |