elexa
0x45952ed80d6394d98cf9e9ce073c5d674520158c
- Realised P&L
- $185.27
- Volume
- $39.5k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $927.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)95.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.962 | 0.989 | $604.25 | +$16.20 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.705 | $323.27 | +$11.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$65.15at 0.800Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$14.17at 0.980Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?
- +$10.26at 0.985Trump out as President by April 30?
- +$10.00at 0.972Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?
- +$8.41at 0.880Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 09:58 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $311.81 |
| 07-18 11:57 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.978 | $310.03 |
| 07-15 07:30 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.962 | $588.05 |
| 07-03 12:59 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $307.89 |
| 07-03 12:58 | Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? | BUY | 0.984 | $196.80 |
| 07-03 12:50 | Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? | BUY | 0.9845125314 | $384.18 |
| 06-16 23:18 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | BUY | 0.992 | $841.02 |
| 06-09 04:26 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.991 | $42.61 |
| 06-06 05:04 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.994 | $177.53 |
| 06-05 05:49 | Will SpaceX IPO on June 30, 2026 or later? | BUY | 0.9735651163 | $41.86 |
| 05-29 10:55 | Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.98 | $867.82 |
| 05-20 03:23 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? | BUY | 0.997 | $866.39 |
| 05-19 07:11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 21? | BUY | 0.998 | $866.12 |
| 05-18 14:37 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 18? | BUY | 0.9975412963 | $53.87 |
| 05-18 14:37 | Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $810.81 |