sfghdr4e5y
0x4119f3e70a99321eafcce7897d4c748491eb978a
- Realised P&L
- $463.39
- Volume
- $23.4k
- Markets traded
- 105
- Open portfolio
- $31.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded105
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 August 3-9? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $30.41 | +$0.05 |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.006 | $1.11 | −$0.09 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? · Yes | 0.953 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.00 |
| Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$453.39at 0.490Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on March 11?
- +$19.50at 0.500Solana Up or Down - May 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
- +$5.48at 0.007Will Dplus win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
- +$0.50at 0.960Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25?
- +$0.20at 0.974Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 27?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 04:37 | Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on August 7? | BUY | 0.9869999988 | $10.03 |
| 08-07 04:35 | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.998 | $30.36 |
| 08-06 04:43 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on August 6? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $10.76 |
| 08-06 04:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on August 6? | BUY | 0.997 | $30.65 |
| 08-05 03:40 | Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on August 5? | BUY | 0.996 | $10.30 |
| 08-05 03:38 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on August 5? | BUY | 0.9989999738 | $30.18 |
| 08-03 05:27 | Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on August 4? | BUY | 0.99 | $10.20 |
| 08-03 05:25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.996 | $30.60 |
| 07-31 05:01 | Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on July 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $10.16 |
| 07-31 04:58 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on July 31? | BUY | 0.9989999789 | $30.33 |
| 07-29 05:01 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on July 29? | BUY | 0.9989999422 | $10.39 |
| 07-29 04:57 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 29? | BUY | 0.9989999725 | $30.14 |
| 07-28 05:02 | Will the price of Solana be above $70 on July 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.00 |
| 07-28 05:01 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $30.41 |
| 07-27 04:33 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on July 27? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.30 |